10/7/2023 0 Comments Unintuitive phenomena definition![]() In 17 trillion" long shot, speaking of a woman who won Review a front-page story in the New York Times on a "1 We know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.Ī Double Lottery Winner. Writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incred. Of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population We expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such If a coin-Ĭidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then ![]() Plentiful in a population of 250 million people. Quired for an event to be surprising] are bound to be In a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) re. Is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once Sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. Law of truly large numbers states: With a large enough That is, if I understand if correctly it's not that you can choose a random number between one and a billion and run a CPU to randomly check numbers in that range as fast as possible and get lots of results in seconds, it's that based one how we have roughly 8 billion people all communicating events that things we consider "one in a billion" occurrences will be experienced about 8 times a month across the populate, and we'll all pretty much hear about it, which may not match with our expectations of how often we should see a "one in a billion" event reported.Įdit: Here's some relevant info from the paper "Methods for Studying Coincidences": I think this is about events happening to people, the number of people alive (and assuming they all communicate "miracle" occurrences"), and how many things they experience. Depending on a whole bunch of subjective definitions, a one-in-billion event can happen a million times a second or practically never or whatever else you choose. > This one, on the other hand, I don't like. A one-in-billion event will happen 8 times a month: And then 2 months later you find out there was a bug in the simulation and the item you deleted 1.9 months ago was actually better. It's a nice contrast to something like WoW where every time you get a new item you just chuck the item code into some ten million LOC simulator and fuck around with limiting permutations until it doesn't take 15 minutes to run, just to find out through some totally opaque process that you have 189 more dps. It's completely unbearable going back to other games that just say crap like "+30% to x" without actually distinguishing between the different ways calculations can be done, forcing you to either experiment endlessly, look up every tiny thing on a community wiki, or just wing it. The game has a lot of seemingly arbitrary distinctions and concepts that you just have to learn over time, but once you actually learn them, the consistency of it all makes it very easy to handle the large amounts of complexity in the game. You joke, but PoE's use of stuff like 'increased/decreased' and 'more/less' to distinguish between additive and multiplicative calculations is one of the smartest game design decisions I've seen.
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